Reform, Resilience and European Integration

Ukraine’s potential EU membership brings a number of significant challenges and opportunities. If adopted, Ukraine would be the EU’s largest country by land mass and rival Poland in terms of population. However, the ongoing war has dealt a blow to Ukraine’s GDP, necessitating a review of the Copenhagen criteria, or measures for assessing a country’s progress in terms of governance reforms that comply with European norms. Ukraine, despite its declared aspirations for liberal democratic rule, still has to implement many reforms to align with the EU.

While the Republic of Ukraine was granted potential membership status in the EU on 23 June 2022, stakeholders discussed the country’s accession long before that. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine has tried to navigate between its eastern and western neighbors. Official relations between the EU and Ukraine began in 1994 with the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA), an economic cooperation agreement that “does not provide for the integration of Ukraine with the EU, but creates a framework for cooperation and coordination of specific policies” (Spiliopoulos, 2014).

President Yanukovych’s removal from power after blocking a trade deal marked a turning point in European power dynamics: Russia feared that Ukraine leaving its sphere of influence would endanger its own security.

Following the 2004 Orange Revolution and Viktor Yushchenko’s rise to power, EU-Ukraine relations were strengthened with the Eastern Partnership in 2008. “The Eastern Partnership is a response to the call of neighboring countries to the east of the EU, which would be to move closer to the EU… But it is also vital that the EU contributes to ensuring stability on its eastern borders, democratization, making governance more effective and supporting economic development.” is a source of concern” (Costea, 2011).

Following Euromaidan, the EU and Ukraine further consolidated their political relations with an Association Agreement (AA) on 21 March 2014 (European Union, 2014). AA “marked the decisive change in the country’s geopolitical and economic orientation and the disappearance of long Russian influence […] It was the clearest demonstration of the commitment of both parties for a common future and a common path” (Spiliopoulos, 2014).

The Association Agreement, together with the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), has made significant progress in trade between Ukraine and the European Union. Later, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko signed a constitutional amendment forcing Ukraine to become a member of NATO and the European Union (Radio Free Europe, 2019).

On February 19, 2019, Poroshenko described securing Ukraine’s membership in NATO and the EU as his strategic mission; While he stated that Ukraine “must seek EU membership and obtain a NATO membership action plan by 2023 at the latest,” he also acknowledged significant obstacles (Associated Press 2019).

The aim of this article is to summarize EU-Ukraine relations and examine the possible consequences of Ukraine’s membership in the European Union, together with political and legal obstacles. Finally, this report will explore an alternative path to greater cooperation without full membership.

To join the European Union, applicants must complete nine steps that emphasize political agreement between member states with compliance with technical criteria (European Union, 2023). Ukraine completed the fifth. States initiate the accession process by submitting an application to the council, which then provides an opinion on the application. Once EU member states unanimously accept candidate status and the conditions are met, negotiations are opened and officially begin after the commission proposes a draft framework with the unanimous support of the member states.

Ukraine submitted its application for membership on February 24, 2022, shortly after the Russian offensive began. Having reviewed the Copenhagen criteria, the Commission published its opinion on the application, concluding that Ukraine should be offered the possibility of EU integration and identified seven main areas of improvement for Ukraine to join the Union, mainly related to the rule of law (European Union, 2022).

Ukraine was subsequently granted candidate status on June 23, 2022, and the European Council inquired about Ukraine’s progress (European Union, 2022). Ukraine has obtained political agreement from the member states of the Council of Europe to grant it candidate status and start negotiations. Subsequently, in February 2023, the Commission published a report assessing Ukraine’s ability to fulfill the obligations of EU membership, including all EU law set out in the acquis or Treaty, secondary legislation and EU policies (European Union, 2023).

The Commission published its first annual enlargement report on Ukraine on 8 November 2023, and the country was evaluated positively based on its progress in seven areas (European Union, 2023).

On 14 December 2023, the European Council agreed to start accession negotiations with Ukraine (General Secretariat of the Council of Delegations, 2023). In March 2024, the Commission proposed a draft negotiating framework for accession negotiations for Ukraine, outlining guidelines and principles in three parts: governance principles, negotiation content and procedures (Moldovan Delegation Press and Information Team, 2024).

On 21 June 2024, the EU Council approved the negotiation framework for accession talks with Ukraine, setting the first meeting of the intergovernmental conference on Ukraine’s accession to the European Union for 25 June 2024 ( European Union, 2024 ). This framework emphasized that Ukraine must implement the acquis available on accession and ensure its timely and effective implementation.

The parts of the acquis that Ukraine must implement are divided into six clusters, as introduced by the revised enlargement methodology in 2020: Foundations, Internal Market, Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth, Green Agenda and Sustainable Connectivity, Resources, Agriculture and Cohesion and External Relations (European Union, 2020). This change was aimed at ensuring that the government focused on the rule of law, democratic institutions and economic reforms. It addressed problems of single-party control and aimed to improve judicial independence.

Given Ukraine’s history of war and mismanagement, it is vital to maintain administrative capacity to implement reforms and enforce EU norms. With the sixth step, formal negotiations can finally begin, with the Commission and the Ukrainian government overseeing accession negotiations. This is the most difficult step, because the candidate country must incorporate the EU acquis into its administration (European Union, 2023). Currently, Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Türkiye are at this stage. However, the technical challenge may end before it begins for Ukraine, with Hungary assuming the rotating presidency of the Council from 1 July to 31 December 2024 (Liboreiro, 2024).

Viktor Orbán’s government will control the agenda, prioritize issues and chair ministerial meetings. On June 18, Hungary’s Minister of European Affairs, János Bóka, confirmed that Hungary would not support the opening of any of the 35 chapters required for Ukraine’s membership talks (Liboreiro 2024). Bóka emphasized that the focus should instead be on the Western Balkans and ensure that the enlargement process remains “merit-based, objective and credible”.