Reform, Resilience and European Integration
Security risks
The EU should develop robust assistance programmes to support the Ukrainian government in addressing both its external and internal post-war security challenges. This includes managing the large amount of arms in circulation and encouraging the return of Ukrainian refugees, who will be essential for reconstruction efforts. In addition, securing small arms and light weapons (SALW) in a post-conflict situation will be a major priority to prevent their proliferation in unsanctioned domestic and international markets, which could further exacerbate the danger posed by terrorist cells seeking to operate in Europe (Wisotzki 2021, 249). In addition, the EU should be alert to hybrid threats from Russia, such as disinformation campaigns aimed at reinforcing euroscepticism in established EU members and covert information or personnel channels that Russia may have established inside Ukraine (Heck, 2024).
Once Ukraine joins the EU, it will have one of the largest armies experienced in countering external aggression, terrorism, cyberattacks and modern warfare tactics (Darvas et al, 2024). Furthermore, Ukraine’s significant defence industry has the potential to contribute significantly to the EU’s defence sector. Article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty emphasises the collective security commitment that extends to Ukraine, stipulating that in the event of an armed attack on a member state, other member states must provide all possible assistance and support (European External Action Service 2022).
However, integrating Ukraine also carries risks. The proliferation of small arms, the increasing potential for organised crime and the management of a significant military force all require careful consideration.
The EU must ensure that the benefits of Ukraine’s membership, such as enhanced security and defence capabilities, outweigh these risks by implementing comprehensive strategies and support measures. The ongoing conflict with Russia means the EU must prepare for increased tensions and possible escalation, making diplomatic and military preparedness key priorities.
A Way Forward?
Given the significant challenges and risks associated with Ukraine’s full EU membership, an alternative solution is the establishment of an Enhanced Partnership Framework (EPF). This framework would offer Ukraine closer cooperation with the EU without immediate full membership, and would enable the achievement of political, economic and security objectives while reducing potential risks.
The EPF would begin with a structured integration roadmap that would gradually align Ukraine with EU standards in governance and economic policy, with clear milestones and benchmarks that would allow for assessment of progress and necessary adjustments along the way. Enhanced trade and economic cooperation is the cornerstone of this framework.
The expansion of the existing Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) should include further tariff reductions, simplification of customs procedures and the redirection of EU investment into Ukraine’s energy, agriculture and technology sectors to promote economic growth and stability. In addition, targeted financial assistance and structural funds would support fundamental economic reforms and infrastructure development, with rigorous monitoring to ensure effective use.
Security strengthening measures such as defense cooperation are another critical component of the EPF. Regular joint military exercises, training programs, and robust intelligence sharing can enhance Ukraine’s defense capabilities and counter hybrid threats. Cooperation between Ukrainian and EU defense industries will further enhance technology transfer and manufacturing capabilities. To counter hybrid threats and enhance cybersecurity, the EPF should implement joint EU-Ukraine cyber defense initiatives to protect critical infrastructure and promote resilience to cyberattacks.
Assisting Ukraine in implementing critical institutional and governance reforms is essential for long-term stability and alignment with EU standards. This support should emphasize anti-corruption measures, judicial reforms, and decentralization programs to strengthen local governments and improve public service delivery (Darvas et al., 2024).
Encouraging and supporting the participation of civil society organizations ensures transparency and accountability in the reform process. Addressing migration and humanitarian issues is also critical. At the same time, the EPF should provide support programs for Ukrainian refugees, including education, healthcare, and employment assistance, and provide incentives for their eventual return to Ukraine. The creation of a special fund for post-war reconstruction should include returning refugees and displaced persons in the reconstruction process.
Gradual legal and regulatory harmonization will be achieved through sectoral agreements that align Ukrainian regulations with EU standards in areas such as environmental protection, consumer rights, and competition policy. Technical assistance will be provided to help Ukraine effectively adopt and implement these regulations.
Consequently, the Enhanced Partnership Framework offers a viable option to promote improved bilateral relations between Ukraine and the EU. It strikes a balance between the imperative for closer cooperation between the two parties and the political and economic realities associated with achieving full EU membership. Focusing on gradual integration, targeted assistance and robust security cooperation allows Ukraine to reduce potential risks and promote mutual benefits while aligning its domestic policies with those of the EU. Moreover, this approach contributes to regional stability and economic growth, strengthening the preparedness of both Ukraine and the EU to cope with future challenges and opportunities.
In conclusion, although Ukraine’s path to EU membership will require overcoming significant political and economic obstacles, the potential benefits are significant. Achieving this integration will require strategic planning and significant reforms that will ensure that Ukraine complies with EU standards and contributes positively to the future of the Union.
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