Reform, Resilience and European Integration
Security risks
The EU should develop robust assistance programmes to support the Ukrainian government in addressing both its external and internal post-war security challenges. This includes managing the large amount of arms in circulation and encouraging the return of Ukrainian refugees, who will be essential for reconstruction efforts. In addition, securing small arms and light weapons (SALW) in a post-conflict situation will be a major priority to prevent their proliferation in unsanctioned domestic and international markets, which could further exacerbate the danger posed by terrorist cells seeking to operate in Europe (Wisotzki 2021, 249). In addition, the EU should be alert to hybrid threats from Russia, such as disinformation campaigns aimed at reinforcing euroscepticism in established EU members and covert information or personnel channels that Russia may have established inside Ukraine (Heck, 2024).
Once Ukraine joins the EU, it will have one of the largest armies experienced in countering external aggression, terrorism, cyberattacks and modern warfare tactics (Darvas et al, 2024). Furthermore, Ukraine’s significant defence industry has the potential to contribute significantly to the EU’s defence sector. Article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty emphasises the collective security commitment that extends to Ukraine, stipulating that in the event of an armed attack on a member state, other member states must provide all possible assistance and support (European External Action Service 2022).
However, integrating Ukraine also carries risks. The proliferation of small arms, the increasing potential for organised crime and the management of a significant military force all require careful consideration.
The EU must ensure that the benefits of Ukraine’s membership, such as enhanced security and defence capabilities, outweigh these risks by implementing comprehensive strategies and support measures. The ongoing conflict with Russia means the EU must prepare for increased tensions and possible escalation, making diplomatic and military preparedness key priorities.
A Way Forward?
Given the significant challenges and risks associated with Ukraine’s full EU membership, an alternative solution is the establishment of an Enhanced Partnership Framework (EPF). This framework would offer Ukraine closer cooperation with the EU without immediate full membership, and would enable the achievement of political, economic and security objectives while reducing potential risks.
The EPF would begin with a structured integration roadmap that would gradually align Ukraine with EU standards in governance and economic policy, with clear milestones and benchmarks that would allow for assessment of progress and necessary adjustments along the way. Enhanced trade and economic cooperation is the cornerstone of this framework.
The expansion of the existing Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) should include further tariff reductions, simplification of customs procedures and the redirection of EU investment into Ukraine’s energy, agriculture and technology sectors to promote economic growth and stability. In addition, targeted financial assistance and structural funds would support fundamental economic reforms and infrastructure development, with rigorous monitoring to ensure effective use.
Security strengthening measures such as defense cooperation are another critical component of the EPF. Regular joint military exercises, training programs, and robust intelligence sharing can enhance Ukraine’s defense capabilities and counter hybrid threats. Cooperation between Ukrainian and EU defense industries will further enhance technology transfer and manufacturing capabilities. To counter hybrid threats and enhance cybersecurity, the EPF should implement joint EU-Ukraine cyber defense initiatives to protect critical infrastructure and promote resilience to cyberattacks.
Assisting Ukraine in implementing critical institutional and governance reforms is essential for long-term stability and alignment with EU standards. This support should emphasize anti-corruption measures, judicial reforms, and decentralization programs to strengthen local governments and improve public service delivery (Darvas et al., 2024).
Encouraging and supporting the participation of civil society organizations ensures transparency and accountability in the reform process. Addressing migration and humanitarian issues is also critical. At the same time, the EPF should provide support programs for Ukrainian refugees, including education, healthcare, and employment assistance, and provide incentives for their eventual return to Ukraine. The creation of a special fund for post-war reconstruction should include returning refugees and displaced persons in the reconstruction process.
Gradual legal and regulatory harmonization will be achieved through sectoral agreements that align Ukrainian regulations with EU standards in areas such as environmental protection, consumer rights, and competition policy. Technical assistance will be provided to help Ukraine effectively adopt and implement these regulations.
Consequently, the Enhanced Partnership Framework offers a viable option to promote improved bilateral relations between Ukraine and the EU. It strikes a balance between the imperative for closer cooperation between the two parties and the political and economic realities associated with achieving full EU membership. Focusing on gradual integration, targeted assistance and robust security cooperation allows Ukraine to reduce potential risks and promote mutual benefits while aligning its domestic policies with those of the EU. Moreover, this approach contributes to regional stability and economic growth, strengthening the preparedness of both Ukraine and the EU to cope with future challenges and opportunities.
In conclusion, although Ukraine’s path to EU membership will require overcoming significant political and economic obstacles, the potential benefits are significant. Achieving this integration will require strategic planning and significant reforms that will ensure that Ukraine complies with EU standards and contributes positively to the future of the Union.
Bibliography
Costea, Simion. “EU-Ukraine Relations and the Eastern Partnership: Challenges, Progress and Potential.” European Foreign Affairs Review 16, no. 2 (May 2011): 259–276. https://doi.org/10.54648/EERR2011018.
Darvas, Zsolt, Marek Dabrowski, Heather Grabbe, Luca Léry Moffat, André Sapir and Georg Zachmann. “Ukraine’s path to European Union membership and its long-term implications.” Bruegel , 7 March 2024. https://www.bruegel.org/policy-brief/ukraines-path-european-union-membership-and-its-long-term-implications.
European Union. A more reliable, dynamic, predictable and political EU accession process – the Commission sets out its proposals . Europa, 5 February 2020. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_20_181.
European Union. “Association Agreement between the European Union and its Member States and Ukraine, adopted on 21 March 2014. Official Journal of the European Union – EUR-Lex , no. 161, 3-2137. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:22014A0529(01).
European Union. “COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT: Analytical Report following the Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the European Council and the Commission of the Council on Ukraine’s application for membership of the European Union.” Official Journal of the European Union – EUR-Lex , 1 February 2023, 3-66. https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/59c236e7-5cc3-421e-b254-50ee2a9454b4_en?filename=SWD_2023_30_Ukraine.pdf.
European Union. COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT: Ukraine 2023 Report . Europa, 8 November 2023. https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/bb61ea6d-dda6-4117-9347-a7191ecefc3f_en?filename=SWD_2023_699%20Ukraine%20report.pdf.
European Union. “COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE AND THE COUNCIL: Commission Opinion on Ukraine’s application for membership of the European Union.” Official Journal of the European Union – EUR-Lex , 17 June 2022, 1-21. https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/c8316380-6cb6-4ffd-8a84-d2874003b288_en?filename=Ukraine%20Opinion%20and%20Annex.pdf.
European Union. Meeting of the Economic and Financial Affairs Council: Russia’s Aggression against Ukraine (21 June 2024) . Europa. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/ecofin/2024/06/21/.
European Union. Enlargement Policy: Reforms and the Challenges Ahead . Branislav Stanicek and Jakub Przetacznik. EuroParl, 13 December 2023. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2023/757575/EPRS_BRI(2023)757575_EN.pdf.
European Union. European Council meeting (14 and 15 December 2023) – Conclusions. Europa. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/68967/europeancouncilconclusions-14-15-12-2023-en.pdf.
European Union. European Council meeting (23 and 24 June 2022) – Conclusions . Europa. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/57442/2022-06-2324-euco-conclusions-en.pdf.
European Union. GENERAL EU POSITION: Ministerial meeting opening the Intergovernmental Conference on the Accession of Ukraine to the European Union (Luxembourg, 25 June 2024). Europa. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/hzmfw1ji/public-ad00009en24.pdf.
European Union. “Partnership and Cooperation Agreement between the European Communities and their Member States and Ukraine, adopted on 14 June 1994.” Official Journal of the European Union – EUR-Lex, no. 49, 3-46. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex%3A21998A0219%2802%29.
European Union. The EU Accession Process: Step by Step . Europa, November 2023. https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/document/download/a9099136-b301-458e-a846-c6bf8c47d287_en?filename=Factsheet-EU-accession-process-cluster-newlayout-EP2023_0.pdf.
Heck, Nicolás. “Policy Analysis: Hybrid Warfare Against the European Union.” European Relations . 2024. https://www.europeanrelations.com/article/policy-analysis-hybrid-warfare-against-the-european-union#author.
Liboreiro, Jorge. “Ukraine heading for accession impasse during Hungary’s EU Council presidency.” EuroNews . 18 June 2024. https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/06/18/ukraine-heading-for-accession-impasse-during-hungarys-eu-council-presidency.
Mykhnenko, Vlad and Alli Devlin. “Why Green Steel Should Play a Vital Role in Ukraine’s Post-War Recovery.” World Economic Forum . 5 July 2024.
Moldovan Delegation Press and Information Team. Commission updates on progress made by Ukraine and Moldova and proposes draft negotiating frameworks . Europa, 13 March 2024. https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/moldova/commission-updates-progress-made-ukraine-and-moldova-and-proposes-draft-negotiation-frameworks_en?s=223.
Spiliopoulos, Odysseas. “The EU-Ukraine Association Agreement as an Integration Framework between the Two Parties.” Procedia Economics and Finance 9 (2014): 256-263. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00027-6.
Strategic Communication Section of the European External Action Service. “Article 42(7) TEU – Article 42(7) TEU – Mutual Assistance of the EU, signed in Lisbon on 13 December 2007.” European External Action Service. https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/a